Summary

Closely related to Bioprinting. Animal-sourced foods produced in cell cultures are called clean meat or umbrella term “cellular agriculture”. For a sustainable and secure supply chain, humanity is required to find alternative protein sources to meat and dairy products. The Paris Agreement and subsequent regulation is forcing livestock and manure industries to adapt to reduce emissions. Cellular agriculture creates alternative routes for producing meat, dairy products, leather, fur, perfumes, and other animal origin items. Reasonable engineering risk is still present in beef-based products because manufacturing fibers in the meat requires an innovation; only commercial risk is left for dairy products.

Viability (4)

First lab grown burger shown in 2013, steak in 2018 but still reasonable engineering risks to grow the meat -with fat, protein and fibers and all that tastes like “flesh”. Parts of products (meat with only protein) are viable to be produced in large scale -chicken and pork are produced in large scale with low prices- since it’s expensive to create a small steak.

Drivers (2)

The global economy needs to double the amount of meat-based protein sources produced by 2050 while reducing industrial agricultural carbon emissions from 10%. Meat-eating linked to zoonotic diseases and antibiotic resistance. Adoption of vegetarian, veganism and flexitarian diets as a response to climate change, ethical and health-related concerns have made the market viable in last 5 years. On the supply-side,Cell and Gene Therapy with induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSC) technology for the production of cells and CRISPR for the delivery of cells has made clean meat possible.

Novelty (3)

Clean meat competes with industrial livestock management, the dominant form of meat-based protein for thousands of years which contributes 6% of total global greenhouse gas emissions. Low-carbon alternatives are plant-based protein products and microbial protein like Quorn. Clean meat is superior to alternative proteins on taste, in that it can taste more like animal proteins, which makes it easier for consumers to switch. But clean meat will for the forseeable future be more expensive that alternative proteins simply because the inputs and production processes are less established.

Diffusion (2)

As noted, cost and taste as the biggest restraints to adoption. Consumers that enjoy the taste of meat or are price sensitive are unlikely to switch to alternative proteins. Especially because whole-muscle meats like steak or chicken breast have a more complex, fibrous structure that the alt-meat companies have not yet managed to mimic outside the lab. Consumers who don’t particular enjoy the taste of meat will not look for products that taste like animal meat and will be happy with plant-based products. Health-conscious consumers are more likely to select plant-based proteins rather than highly processed clean meat.

Impact (1) Medium certainty

Alternative meat consumption is about 1% today making a market of around $4.5 billion. Forecasts of growth differ widely but analysts estimate maybe 5-10% of protein consumption could be alternative proteins by 2030. That 5-10% will likely be consumers who can afford to pay more for food and are particular health conscious, this makes plant-based proteins much more likely than clean meat to capture market share. Clean meat is “ultra-processed” and many vegans and vegetarians that eschew meat products for health reasons, will seek to eat plant-based foods rather than ultra-processed foods. The only pathway for clean meat to have a large impact is for costs to fall dramatically and much lower than plant-based or microbial proteins, very likely using Bioprinting, although at high volumes this is a decade+ away.

Timing (2025-2030) High certainty

There was a flurry of VC investments following success of Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods peaked with more than $2B going into the market in 2020 and 2021. Valuations were likely predicated on faster than realistic market adoption even in the face of the climate emergency. Costs and approvals will take time to fall as animal-based meat consumption proves harder than expected to change. Still opportunities in the clean meat market, but much smaller than expectations.