Summary
6G is the sixth generation standard under development for wireless communications technologies supporting cellular data networks. It is the successor to 5G although few features or performance targets have been agreed. It will likely be significantly faster (up to 1 Tpbs) with ultra low latency (<1 ms versus 4ms with 5G) making connectivity seem instantaneous for even the more demanding applications. Research suggests that operating at higher unused frequencies (100 GHz to 3 THz) are promising for 5G although at these frequencies power consumption will become a limiting factor.
Viability (2)
6G is a set of technologies and so will be decided by agreement, it will inevitably be viable, as only suitable technologies will be selected to be part of the standard. One area needing research is replacement materials for CMOS-based semiconductors especially for power amplifiers as they are ill-suited for frequencies above 100 GHz. This is lots of science and engineering required but that won’t stop 6G from arriving in the 2030s.
Drivers (4)
US and Europe desire to gain 6G superiority after Chinese superiority in 5G, and the first example for Western powers of China setting standards for future technology. This is important for how security and privacy are handled in 6G with the West and China likely to push on different directions.
Novelty (3)
Benefits across all dimensions: faster, snappier, smarter, etc, etc. 5G is designed to serve high performance use cases like AR/VR, large scale m2m communication (mMTC) and ultra-reliable low latency communication (URLLC), and so it’s difficult to predict what 5G can’t support. The reality is 6G will co-exist with 5G from 2030+ to do stuff we already do faster and enable new things. The challenge will be for network operators to persuade users to upgrade especially as 5G will be “good enough” for most for a long time.
Diffusion (3)
Unlike many technologies, 6G doesn’t have to be 10x better than existing solutions as the industry is economically and in many cases government mandated to improve performance and coverage. The speed of diffusion might be constrained by new applications that persuade consumers to switch to new networks but that generally hasn’t been an issue with 4G or 5G.
Impact (4) High certainty
We will always find more things to do with a faster mobile internet connection but faster are iterative rather than transformational. It’s predicted that 5G will have a $12 trillion impact globally by 2035, and it’s likely 6G will be in the same order of magnitude from 2030-2045. It’s unclear 8 years out exactly what 6G can enable that 5G can’t. Much of the discussion is around the integration of physical and digital systems with digital twins and immersive simulations.
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