Summary
3D printing or additive manufacturing (AM) is the construction of a three-dimensional object from a CAD model or a digital 3D model. Essentially, objects are built up layer-by-layer, each layer adding material on top of the previous layer. The two most 3D printing techniques are fused deposition modeling (FDM) and stereolithography (SLA), both of which builds up the object layer-by-layer, but FDM uses a solid thermoplastic filament and lays down materials through extrusion whereas SLA uses a liquid resin and guided UV lasers to draw patterns. This process stands in contrast to traditional manufacturing techniques like computer numerical control (CNC) which are subtractive cutting away materials to leave a finished object.
Viability (5)
AM has been around since the 1980s where it was used rapid prototyping due to a lack of precision, repeatability and material range. Improvements in printer and filament performance and reduction in costs, mean AM could be applied in industrial areas like automotive, aerospace and healthcare. R&D continues to make 3D printing more competitive with traditional methods with faster throughput, bigger printers for larger objects, extending the range of materials from just plastics and metals to foodstuffs (Clean Meat) and biocompatible materials like Polyamide 12 and Silicone (Sil 30). And applying machine learning and Quantum Chemistry Software to develop new materials for 3D printing for heat resistance or aluminium alloys for metal 3D printing.
Drivers (4)
Cost declines, increased range of materials and performance improvements. On the cost-side, costs have declined precipitously to the point at which an entry-level printer can cost $200 and industrial-grade printers can come from as little as $20k. As for filaments, the diversity of polymers continues to grow with new high performance polymers like Polyether ether ketone (PEEK) exhibit high-strength, high temperature and biocompatible properties, making 3D printing viable for space and medical applications. Techniques like direct metal laser sintering (DMLS) for metals and ceramic printing continue to increase the market for AM. Finally, SLA 3D printing can achieve precision on the micron scale and techniques like HARP (high-area rapid printing) and Selective Absorption Fusion (SAF) are pushing am into production-scale 3D printing.
Novelty (3)
3D printing is a disruptive innovation. The technique is inferior to computer numerical control (CNC) fabrication across almost all competitive dimensions and over time as performance has improved it has slowly replaced CNC for more and more manufacturing workloads. AM started as a tools for consumers who couldn’t access traditional manufacturing methods and won a small amount of the industrial protoyping market where CNC was too expensive for low volumes. Today and for the forseeable future, AM won’t compete with CNC for large volumes where high throughput and speed matter. AM wins where customisation matters, products are complex, and where low volumes are sufficient which will come to make up a greater share of the overall market in healthcare, fashion, and space for example.
Diffusion (4)
Throughput, industrial-scale printing and quality control are the three main barriers for industrial adoption. As discussed, AM is ill-suited today to high volumes although it is improving with HARP and SAF. It is also not not plug-and-play and a new manufacturing execution system (MES) which must integrate with product lifecycle management (PLM), enterprise resource planning (ERP), and general IT software. This is a sales problem not a technical problem but certainly the complexity of the supply chain. Quality control is still a problem for 3D printing as each part is distinct. Previously QA required an expensive CT scanner, but newer CT scanners are cheaper and use machine learning to anticipate and predict failures ahead of time. On the consumer side, the complexity of the machines and the range of products that can be printed is the limiting growth factor.
Impact (4)
Fine, the market will reach $50 billion by 2030. The expectation is that 3D printing will continue to have a steady impact in the 30s, 40s and 50s as it slowly replaces traditional manufacturing methods for an even increasing number of goods and foods. At the highest level of abstraction, we can say human progress has come from cheaper production (factory system, mass production, lean production) and cheaper distribution (steam engine, railways, iron steamship, internal combustion engine, electricity, airplane, intermodal container). 3D printing may not materially decrease production costs, but curtails or eliminates the need for the physical distribution of finished goods and foods. In the intermediate stage, it can collapse supply chains materially reducing the energy use of the agricultural and transportation industries which accounts for 34% of global GHG emissions.
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